Qualification · Qualification 9
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
129.9 – 113.8
55%45%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
42 – 68
Prediction missed · off by 66.9 points
Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.
red allianceTotal Season APEX 239.8 ±13.3
Season APEX 94.3Event APEX 63.43Rank 40Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 68.5Event APEX 57.04Rank 39Record 2-9-1Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 77Event APEX 9.43Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 170.2 ±13.3
Season APEX 77.9Event APEX 0.95Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 47.6Event APEX 49.42Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 44.7Event APEX 63.43Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 5053, 4737, 10612
72
/ 100 compatProjected
129.9 pts
~1.5 RP (district)
Teams: 5053, 4737, 10612
Auto
38.6 30%
Teleop
69.4 53%
Endgame
22.0 17%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 38%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 6078, 830, 6566
68
/ 100 compatProjected
113.8 pts
~1.4 RP (district)
Teams: 6078, 830, 6566
Auto
23.5 21%
Teleop
62.6 56%
Endgame
25.9 23%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 38%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.52 · Blue 1.39
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score129.9pts
Blue projected score113.8pts
Red win probability55%
Event bonus sample192alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 38%, blue 45%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 16.1
- Score range
- 93–151
- Upset likelihood
- 45%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
239.8Season APEX170.2
38.6Auto23.5
69.4Teleop62.6
22Endgame25.9
0Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 11 | 17 |
| teleop | 21 | 24 |
| endgame | 10 | 12 |
| foul | 0 | 15 |
| total | 42 | 68 |
Result
Final score
42 – 68
Prediction missed · off by 66.9 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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