FIM District Milford Event presented by GM Proving Grounds

Qualification · Qualification 77

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

166.22 – 137.68

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

184 – 135

Prediction correct · off by 10.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 338.6 ±11.1

7762AutoPilots

Season APEX 64.3Event APEX 35.79Rank 8Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1023Bedford Express

Season APEX 226.7Event APEX 124.8Rank 7Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

830The RatPack

Season APEX 47.6Event APEX 5.63Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 348.3 ±12.8

314The Megatron Oracles

Season APEX 54Event APEX 23.34Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5053Lakers

Season APEX 94.3Event APEX 12.65Rank 40Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5114Titanium Tigers

Season APEX 200Event APEX 101.69Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7762, 1023, 830

/ 100 compat

Projected

166.2 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 7762, 1023, 830

Auto

25.7 16%

Teleop

99.2 64%

Endgame

31.1 20%

Strengths

· 1023 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 314, 5053, 5114

/ 100 compat

Projected

137.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 314, 5053, 5114

Auto

43.2 33%

Teleop

70.6 53%

Endgame

18.5 14%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 55%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.77 · Blue 1.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score166.2pts

Blue projected score137.7pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample192alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 55%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 28.5
Score range: 114–190
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 319 vs event baseline 133.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

338.6Season APEX348.3

25.7Auto43.2

99.2Teleop70.6

31.1Endgame18.5

36Consistency10

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	53
teleop	82	77
endgame	67	5
foul	0	0
total	184	135

Result

Final score

184 – 135

Prediction correct · off by 10.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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