FIM District Milford Event presented by GM Proving Grounds

Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

74.79 – 75.41

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

107 – 52

Prediction missed · off by 27.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 191.6 ±12.7

7553OSTC - SWEET BOTS

Season APEX 83.7Event APEX 37.6Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5674The Gearhounds

Season APEX 73.7Event APEX 39.04Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10285Sacred Heart Outlanders

Season APEX 34.2Event APEX -1.85Rank 34Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 199.8 ±13.9

11486Chesterton Saints

Season APEX 66.8Event APEX 35.31Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11457INVEST

Season APEX 38.7Event APEX 17.46Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5053Lakers

Season APEX 94.3Event APEX 22.64Rank 40Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7553, 5674, 10285

/ 100 compat

Projected

74.8 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 7553, 5674, 10285

Auto

14.9 19%

Teleop

36.2 47%

Endgame

26.0 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11486, 11457, 5053

/ 100 compat

Projected

75.4 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 11486, 11457, 5053

Auto

16.6 24%

Teleop

34.6 51%

Endgame

17.1 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.47 · Blue 1.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score74.8pts

Blue projected score75.4pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample192alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -0.6
Score range: 51–99
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 159 vs event baseline 133.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

191.6Season APEX199.8

14.9Auto16.6

36.2Teleop34.6

26Endgame17.1

85Consistency5

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	21
teleop	59	16
endgame	15	15
foul	10	0
total	107	52

Result

Final score

107 – 52

Prediction missed · off by 27.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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