FIM District Milford Event presented by GM Proving Grounds

Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

102.09 – 26.85

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

57 – 169

Prediction missed · off by 93.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 216.3 ±12.7

314The Megatron Oracles

Season APEX 54Event APEX 28.97Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8423Next Express

Season APEX 96.1Event APEX 55.84Rank 21Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

7178Yeti

Season APEX 66.2Event APEX 17.28Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 179.8 ±12.7

5674The Gearhounds

Season APEX 73.7Event APEX 17.99Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

308Monsters

Season APEX 46.7Event APEX 9.69Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11462Morenci Miswired

Season APEX 59.4Event APEX -0.83Rank 35Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 314, 8423, 7178

/ 100 compat

Projected

102.1 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 314, 8423, 7178

Auto

29.4 31%

Teleop

39.2 42%

Endgame

25.2 27%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5674, 308, 11462

/ 100 compat

Projected

26.9 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5674, 308, 11462

Auto

10.6 56%

Teleop

2.2 12%

Endgame

6.0 32%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.93 · Blue 0.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score102.1pts

Blue projected score26.9pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample192alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 75.2
Score range: 3–126
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 226 vs event baseline 131.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

216.3Season APEX179.8

29.4Auto10.6

39.2Teleop2.2

25.2Endgame6

0Consistency59

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	33
teleop	33	90
endgame	10	36
foul	0	10
total	57	169

Result

Final score

57 – 169

Prediction missed · off by 93.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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