Qualification · Qualification 45
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
143.4 – 118.39
58%42%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
133 – 126
Prediction correct · off by 9 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 412 ±11.7
Season APEX 77.9Event APEX 6.14Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 269.8Event APEX 105.58Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 64.3Event APEX 31.68Rank 8Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 326.4 ±12.2
Season APEX 73.7Event APEX 18.93Rank 23Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 52.7Event APEX -14.07Rank 38Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 200Event APEX 113.53Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 6078, 2137, 7762
66
/ 100 compatProjected
143.4 pts
~1.7 RP (district)
Teams: 6078, 2137, 7762
Auto
45.2 34%
Teleop
80.4 60%
Endgame
9.3 7%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
RP bonus probability
Energized: 54%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 5674, 3302, 5114
62
/ 100 compatProjected
118.4 pts
~1.4 RP (district)
Teams: 5674, 3302, 5114
Auto
28.2 25%
Teleop
59.0 52%
Endgame
26.1 23%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 54%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.74 · Blue 1.39
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score143.4pts
Blue projected score118.4pts
Red win probability58%
Event bonus sample192alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 54%, blue 50%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 25
- Score range
- 94–167
- Upset likelihood
- 42%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
412Season APEX326.4
45.2Auto28.2
80.4Teleop59
9.3Endgame26.1
124Consistency49
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 43 | 45 |
| teleop | 55 | 49 |
| endgame | 30 | 27 |
| foul | 5 | 5 |
| total | 133 | 126 |
Result
Final score
133 – 126
Prediction correct · off by 9 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
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