Qualification · Qualification 3
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
68.83 – 63.97
52%48%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
40 – 36
Prediction correct · off by 28.4 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 199.7 ±13.9
Season APEX 66.8Event APEX 31.56Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 55Event APEX 12.1Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 77.9Event APEX 25.17Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 246.4 ±12.8
Season APEX 74.1Event APEX 18.59Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 54Event APEX 23Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 118.3Event APEX 22.38Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 11486, 7225, 6078
36
/ 100 compatProjected
68.8 pts
~1.5 RP (district)
Teams: 11486, 7225, 6078
Auto
15.8 25%
Teleop
21.6 34%
Endgame
26.2 41%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 41%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 5695, 314, 8424
32
/ 100 compatProjected
64 pts
~1.4 RP (district)
Teams: 5695, 314, 8424
Auto
25.3 42%
Teleop
33.4 55%
Endgame
2.2 4%
Strengths
- · Strong autonomous coverage
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 41%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.48 · Blue 1.36
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score68.8pts
Blue projected score64pts
Red win probability52%
Event bonus sample192alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 41%, blue 35%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 4.9
- Score range
- 37–96
- Upset likelihood
- 48%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
199.7Season APEX246.4
15.8Auto25.3
21.6Teleop33.4
26.2Endgame2.2
40Consistency3
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 10 | 23 |
| teleop | 16 | 11 |
| endgame | 9 | 2 |
| foul | 5 | 0 |
| total | 40 | 36 |
Result
Final score
40 – 36
Prediction correct · off by 28.4 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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