FIM District Milford Event presented by GM Proving Grounds

Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

121.52 – 163.4

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

40 – 158

Prediction correct · off by 43.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 388.9 ±12.4

7225Mechatronic Mustangs

Season APEX 55Event APEX 33.28Rank 33Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

548Robostangs

Season APEX 239.6Event APEX 33.23Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5053Lakers

Season APEX 94.3Event APEX 55.01Rank 40Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 353.1 ±11.7

11457INVEST

Season APEX 38.7Event APEX 37.88Rank 28Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4362Gems

Season APEX 237.4Event APEX 154.52Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10612Cougear

Season APEX 77Event APEX -29Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7225, 548, 5053

/ 100 compat

Projected

121.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 7225, 548, 5053

Auto

20.8 18%

Teleop

48.7 42%

Endgame

45.8 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11457, 4362, 10612

/ 100 compat

Projected

163.4 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 11457, 4362, 10612

Auto

18.6 11%

Teleop

105.4 64%

Endgame

41.6 25%

Strengths

· 4362 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.18 · Blue 1.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score121.5pts

Blue projected score163.4pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample192alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -41.9
Score range: 99–186
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 198 vs event baseline 129.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

388.9Season APEX353.1

20.8Auto18.6

48.7Teleop105.4

45.8Endgame41.6

8Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	49
teleop	8	92
endgame	8	17
foul	5	0
total	40	158

Result

Final score

40 – 158

Prediction correct · off by 43.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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