FIM District Milford Event presented by GM Proving Grounds

Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

119.49 – 158.94

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

151 – 65

Prediction missed · off by 62.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 335.2 ±11.7

830The RatPack

Season APEX 47.6Event APEX 21.38Rank 20Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6615Bellevillains

Season APEX 233.6Event APEX 67.04Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

314The Megatron Oracles

Season APEX 54Event APEX 31.07Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 373.8 ±11.7

548Robostangs

Season APEX 239.6Event APEX 71.82Rank 13Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6566Battering Rams

Season APEX 44.7Event APEX 40.72Rank 14Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4384Benzene Bots

Season APEX 89.5Event APEX 46.4Rank 12Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 830, 6615, 314

/ 100 compat

Projected

119.5 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 830, 6615, 314

Auto

21.5 19%

Teleop

56.0 49%

Endgame

37.2 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 548, 6566, 4384

/ 100 compat

Projected

158.9 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 548, 6566, 4384

Auto

35.0 23%

Teleop

74.8 49%

Endgame

43.1 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.3 · Blue 1.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score119.5pts

Blue projected score158.9pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample192alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -39.4
Score range: 97–181
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 216 vs event baseline 124.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

335.2Season APEX373.8

21.5Auto35

56Teleop74.8

37.2Endgame43.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	30
teleop	72	20
endgame	51	15
foul	0	0
total	151	65

Result

Final score

151 – 65

Prediction missed · off by 62.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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