FIM District Milford Event presented by GM Proving Grounds

Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

40.32 – 105.91

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

32 – 106

Prediction correct · off by 4.2 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 221.1 ±12.7

7491Cyber Soldiers

Season APEX 66.5Event APEX 4.29Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8426Automated Amphibians

Season APEX 87.8Event APEX 26.29Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11486Chesterton Saints

Season APEX 66.8Event APEX 9.74Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 353.4 ±11.1

7660The Byting Irish

Season APEX 55.5Event APEX 16.86Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7762AutoPilots

Season APEX 64.3Event APEX 26.29Rank 8Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6615Bellevillains

Season APEX 233.6Event APEX 62.76Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7491, 8426, 11486

/ 100 compat

Projected

40.3 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 7491, 8426, 11486

Auto

9.3 23%

Teleop

29.0 71%

Endgame

2.4 6%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7660, 7762, 6615

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.9 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 7660, 7762, 6615

Auto

19.2 19%

Teleop

51.9 51%

Endgame

30.4 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.08 · Blue 1.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score40.3pts

Blue projected score105.9pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample192alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -65.6
Score range: 20–126
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 138 vs event baseline 111.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

221.1Season APEX353.4

9.3Auto19.2

29Teleop51.9

2.4Endgame30.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	32
teleop	4	47
endgame	12	22
foul	0	5
total	32	106

Result

Final score

32 – 106

Prediction correct · off by 4.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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