FIM District Milford Event presented by GM Proving Grounds

Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

170.56 – 199.85

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Tie

Final score

200 – 200

Prediction missed · off by 14.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 357 ±11.7

10285Sacred Heart Outlanders

Season APEX 34.2Event APEX 7.95Rank 34Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

1023Bedford Express

Season APEX 226.7Event APEX 121.37Rank 7Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

8423Next Express

Season APEX 96.1Event APEX 41.24Rank 21Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 438.7 ±11.7

4737Atomigators

Season APEX 68.5Event APEX 23.79Rank 39Record 2-9-1Status establishedConfidence 97

4384Benzene Bots

Season APEX 89.5Event APEX 38.87Rank 12Record 7-4-1Status establishedConfidence 97

67The HOT Team

Season APEX 280.7Event APEX 137.19Rank 6Record 8-3-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10285, 1023, 8423

/ 100 compat

Projected

170.6 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 10285, 1023, 8423

Auto

35.1 22%

Teleop

83.3 52%

Endgame

42.3 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4737, 4384, 67

/ 100 compat

Projected

199.9 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4737, 4384, 67

Auto

50.3 26%

Teleop

109.6 56%

Endgame

35.2 18%

Strengths

· 67 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.31 · Blue 1.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score170.6pts

Blue projected score199.9pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample192alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -29.3
Score range: 144–227
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 400 vs event baseline 148.6.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

357Season APEX438.7

35.1Auto50.3

83.3Teleop109.6

42.3Endgame35.2

17Consistency23

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	48
teleop	107	129
endgame	64	23
foul	0	0
total	200	200

Result

Final score

200 – 200

Prediction missed · off by 14.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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