FIM District Midland Event presented by Dow

Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

203.35 – 179.53

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

274 – 153

Prediction correct · off by 48.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 445 ±9.9

8873Rockefeller Robotics

Season APEX 171.8Event APEX 83.03Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5424Rogue Robots

Season APEX 39Event APEX 33.04Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5216E-Ville Empire

Season APEX 234.2Event APEX 87.28Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 295.4 ±11

3357COMETS

Season APEX 110.7Event APEX 57.4Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9661Huskie STEAM

Season APEX 66.7Event APEX 32.48Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5533Electric Horse Power

Season APEX 118Event APEX 89.65Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8873, 5424, 5216

/ 100 compat

Projected

203.4 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 8873, 5424, 5216

Auto

52.0 26%

Teleop

114.3 57%

Endgame

35.0 17%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3357, 9661, 5533

/ 100 compat

Projected

179.5 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 3357, 9661, 5533

Auto

37.7 21%

Teleop

99.4 56%

Endgame

39.6 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.59 · Blue 1.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score203.4pts

Blue projected score179.5pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 23.8
Score range: 159–224
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 427 vs event baseline 116.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

445Season APEX295.4

52Auto37.7

114.3Teleop99.4

35Endgame39.6

0Consistency46

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	60	48
teleop	176	88
endgame	38	17
foul	0	0
total	274	153

Result

Final score

274 – 153

Prediction correct · off by 48.6 pts

Match videos

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