FIM District Midland Event presented by Dow

Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

209 – 180.6

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

234 – 192

Prediction correct · off by 18.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 455.1 ±9.9

5712Hemlock's Gray Matter

Season APEX 245.7Event APEX 83.32Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5603The WarriorBots

Season APEX 45.8Event APEX 27.34Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5166Fabricators

Season APEX 163.6Event APEX 98.34Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 355.1 ±11

8517Bounty Hunters

Season APEX 170.6Event APEX 80.87Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9685Crystal Oscillators

Season APEX 64.3Event APEX 36.35Rank 20Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6753CBA RoboKings

Season APEX 120.2Event APEX 63.38Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5712, 5603, 5166

/ 100 compat

Projected

209 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5712, 5603, 5166

Auto

40.5 19%

Teleop

119.5 57%

Endgame

48.4 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8517, 9685, 6753

/ 100 compat

Projected

180.6 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 8517, 9685, 6753

Auto

37.6 21%

Teleop

89.5 51%

Endgame

48.7 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.61 · Blue 1.24

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score209pts

Blue projected score180.6pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 28.4
Score range: 160–230
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 426 vs event baseline 114.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

455.1Season APEX355.1

40.5Auto37.6

119.5Teleop89.5

48.4Endgame48.7

0Consistency79

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	59	49
teleop	137	73
endgame	38	70
foul	0	0
total	234	192

Result

Final score

234 – 192

Prediction correct · off by 18.2 pts

Match videos

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