FIM District Midland Event presented by Dow

Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

78.9 – 144.66

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

81 – 192

Prediction correct · off by 24.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 172.7 ±12.7

1596The Instigators

Season APEX 76.6Event APEX 26.55Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11458Mechcats

Season APEX 39Event APEX 33.69Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5538Vikingbots

Season APEX 57.1Event APEX 18.66Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 415.9 ±10.5

5229Heritage Hawkbots

Season APEX 130.3Event APEX 54.95Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3770BlitzCreek

Season APEX 186.2Event APEX 58.11Rank 9Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5561Raider Robotics

Season APEX 99.4Event APEX 31.6Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1596, 11458, 5538

/ 100 compat

Projected

78.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 1596, 11458, 5538

Auto

30.4 39%

Teleop

29.7 38%

Endgame

18.0 23%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5229, 3770, 5561

/ 100 compat

Projected

144.7 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5229, 3770, 5561

Auto

31.5 22%

Teleop

67.8 48%

Endgame

42.8 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.11 · Blue 1.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score78.9pts

Blue projected score144.7pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -65.8
Score range: 58–166
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 273 vs event baseline 114.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

172.7Season APEX415.9

30.4Auto31.5

29.7Teleop67.8

18Endgame42.8

91Consistency44

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	30
teleop	43	93
endgame	18	69
foul	0	0
total	81	192

Result

Final score

81 – 192

Prediction correct · off by 24.7 pts

Match videos

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