FIM District Midland Event presented by Dow

Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

101.16 – 156.17

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

116 – 147

Prediction correct · off by 12 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 166.6 ±13.3

5509Like a Boss

Season APEX 48.8Event APEX 11.6Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6033Gadget Agents

Season APEX 65.5Event APEX 44.56Rank 13Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3425PULSARS

Season APEX 52.3Event APEX 45Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 506.8 ±10.7

201The FEDS

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 80.88Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6073Cav-Bots

Season APEX 43Event APEX 20.67Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2619The Charge

Season APEX 215.3Event APEX 54.62Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5509, 6033, 3425

/ 100 compat

Projected

101.2 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5509, 6033, 3425

Auto

32.5 32%

Teleop

44.4 44%

Endgame

25.1 25%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 201, 6073, 2619

/ 100 compat

Projected

156.2 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 201, 6073, 2619

Auto

23.8 16%

Teleop

89.7 59%

Endgame

38.9 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.1 · Blue 1.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score101.2pts

Blue projected score156.2pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -55
Score range: 80–177
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 263 vs event baseline 114.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

166.6Season APEX506.8

32.5Auto23.8

44.4Teleop89.7

25.1Endgame38.9

106Consistency46

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	29
teleop	46	55
endgame	41	33
foul	5	30
total	116	147

Result

Final score

116 – 147

Prediction correct · off by 12 pts

Match videos

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