FIM District Midland Event presented by Dow

Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

182.67 – 142

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

172 – 154

Prediction correct · off by 11.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 295.4 ±11

3357COMETS

Season APEX 110.7Event APEX 58.25Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9661Huskie STEAM

Season APEX 66.7Event APEX 33.83Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5533Electric Horse Power

Season APEX 118Event APEX 90.59Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 415.9 ±10.5

5229Heritage Hawkbots

Season APEX 130.3Event APEX 54.09Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3770BlitzCreek

Season APEX 186.2Event APEX 57.14Rank 9Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5561Raider Robotics

Season APEX 99.4Event APEX 30.77Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3357, 9661, 5533

/ 100 compat

Projected

182.7 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 3357, 9661, 5533

Auto

35.8 20%

Teleop

103.0 58%

Endgame

40.0 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 5229, 3770, 5561

/ 100 compat

Projected

142 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5229, 3770, 5561

Auto

28.8 21%

Teleop

66.0 48%

Endgame

43.3 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.75 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score182.7pts

Blue projected score142pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 40.7
Score range: 122–203
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 326 vs event baseline 113.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

295.4Season APEX415.9

35.8Auto28.8

103Teleop66

40Endgame43.3

36Consistency39

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	45	42
teleop	87	71
endgame	40	41
foul	0	0
total	172	154

Result

Final score

172 – 154

Prediction correct · off by 11.3 pts

Match videos

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