FIM District Midland Event presented by Dow

Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

178.31 – 81.69

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

304 – 76

Prediction correct · off by 65.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 445 ±9.9

8873Rockefeller Robotics

Season APEX 171.8Event APEX 73.83Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5424Rogue Robots

Season APEX 39Event APEX 24.53Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5216E-Ville Empire

Season APEX 234.2Event APEX 79.95Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 172.7 ±12.7

1596The Instigators

Season APEX 76.6Event APEX 28.34Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11458Mechcats

Season APEX 39Event APEX 33.81Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5538Vikingbots

Season APEX 57.1Event APEX 19.54Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8873, 5424, 5216

/ 100 compat

Projected

178.3 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 8873, 5424, 5216

Auto

48.1 27%

Teleop

98.6 56%

Endgame

29.0 17%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1596, 11458, 5538

/ 100 compat

Projected

81.7 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 1596, 11458, 5538

Auto

27.9 35%

Teleop

31.6 39%

Endgame

20.6 26%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.98 · Blue 0.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score178.3pts

Blue projected score81.7pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 96.6
Score range: 62–198
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 380 vs event baseline 112.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

445Season APEX172.7

48.1Auto27.9

98.6Teleop31.6

29Endgame20.6

66Consistency85

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	69	42
teleop	175	23
endgame	60	11
foul	0	0
total	304	76

Result

Final score

304 – 76

Prediction correct · off by 65.7 pts

Match videos

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