FIM District Midland Event presented by Dow

Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

153.36 – 178.47

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

169 – 200

Prediction correct · off by 18.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 506.8 ±10.7

201The FEDS

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 80.27Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6073Cav-Bots

Season APEX 43Event APEX 19.66Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2619The Charge

Season APEX 215.3Event APEX 53.43Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 355.1 ±11

8517Bounty Hunters

Season APEX 170.6Event APEX 79.93Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9685Crystal Oscillators

Season APEX 64.3Event APEX 35.7Rank 20Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6753CBA RoboKings

Season APEX 120.2Event APEX 62.84Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 201, 6073, 2619

/ 100 compat

Projected

153.4 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 201, 6073, 2619

Auto

25.9 17%

Teleop

87.6 58%

Endgame

36.6 24%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8517, 9685, 6753

/ 100 compat

Projected

178.5 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 8517, 9685, 6753

Auto

35.0 20%

Teleop

83.6 49%

Endgame

53.6 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.36 · Blue 1.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score153.4pts

Blue projected score178.5pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -25.1
Score range: 133–198
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 369 vs event baseline 112.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

506.8Season APEX355.1

25.9Auto35

87.6Teleop83.6

36.6Endgame53.6

47Consistency92

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	50
teleop	99	118
endgame	46	32
foul	5	0
total	169	200

Result

Final score

169 – 200

Prediction correct · off by 18.6 pts

Match videos

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