FIM District Midland Event presented by Dow

Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

191.19 – 103.78

75%25%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

287 – 104

Prediction correct · off by 48 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 455.1 ±9.9

5712Hemlock's Gray Matter

Season APEX 245.7Event APEX 76.61Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5603The WarriorBots

Season APEX 45.8Event APEX 21.27Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5166Fabricators

Season APEX 163.6Event APEX 93.31Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 166.6 ±13.3

5509Like a Boss

Season APEX 48.8Event APEX 14.03Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6033Gadget Agents

Season APEX 65.5Event APEX 45.14Rank 13Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3425PULSARS

Season APEX 52.3Event APEX 44.61Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5712, 5603, 5166

/ 100 compat

Projected

191.2 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5712, 5603, 5166

Auto

35.1 18%

Teleop

108.3 57%

Endgame

46.9 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5509, 6033, 3425

/ 100 compat

Projected

103.8 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5509, 6033, 3425

Auto

30.9 29%

Teleop

47.1 45%

Endgame

27.0 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.94 · Blue 0.93

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score191.2pts

Blue projected score103.8pts

Red win probability75%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 87.4
Score range: 84–211
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 391 vs event baseline 111.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

455.1Season APEX166.6

35.1Auto30.9

108.3Teleop47.1

46.9Endgame27

40Consistency93

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	64	44
teleop	167	41
endgame	56	19
foul	0	0
total	287	104

Result

Final score

287 – 104

Prediction correct · off by 48 pts

Match videos

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