FIM District Midland Event presented by Dow

Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

203.78 – 180.34

57%43%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

241 – 155

Prediction correct · off by 31.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 455.1 ±9.9

5712Hemlock's Gray Matter

Season APEX 245.7Event APEX 81.43Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5603The WarriorBots

Season APEX 45.8Event APEX 25.82Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5166Fabricators

Season APEX 163.6Event APEX 96.53Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 355.1 ±11

8517Bounty Hunters

Season APEX 170.6Event APEX 80.94Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9685Crystal Oscillators

Season APEX 64.3Event APEX 36.13Rank 20Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6753CBA RoboKings

Season APEX 120.2Event APEX 63.27Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5712, 5603, 5166

/ 100 compat

Projected

203.8 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5712, 5603, 5166

Auto

44.8 22%

Teleop

110.8 55%

Endgame

47.7 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8517, 9685, 6753

/ 100 compat

Projected

180.3 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 8517, 9685, 6753

Auto

41.2 23%

Teleop

84.2 47%

Endgame

51.9 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.58 · Blue 1.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score203.8pts

Blue projected score180.3pts

Red win probability57%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 23.4
Score range: 159–225
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 396 vs event baseline 118.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

455.1Season APEX355.1

44.8Auto41.2

110.8Teleop84.2

47.7Endgame51.9

1Consistency73

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	56	47
teleop	121	46
endgame	44	62
foul	20	0
total	241	155

Result

Final score

241 – 155

Prediction correct · off by 31.3 pts

Match videos

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