FIM District Midland Event presented by Dow

Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

213.69 – 215.56

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

144 – 154

Prediction correct · off by 65.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 455.1 ±9.9

5712Hemlock's Gray Matter

Season APEX 245.7Event APEX 85.08Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5603The WarriorBots

Season APEX 45.8Event APEX 29.4Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5166Fabricators

Season APEX 163.6Event APEX 99.21Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 445 ±9.9

8873Rockefeller Robotics

Season APEX 171.8Event APEX 87.29Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5424Rogue Robots

Season APEX 39Event APEX 37.29Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5216E-Ville Empire

Season APEX 234.2Event APEX 90.98Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5712, 5603, 5166

/ 100 compat

Projected

213.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5712, 5603, 5166

Auto

43.1 20%

Teleop

123.0 58%

Endgame

47.0 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8873, 5424, 5216

/ 100 compat

Projected

215.6 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 8873, 5424, 5216

Auto

53.2 25%

Teleop

124.8 58%

Endgame

35.7 17%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.43 · Blue 1.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score213.7pts

Blue projected score215.6pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -1.9
Score range: 193–237
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 298 vs event baseline 117.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

455.1Season APEX445

43.1Auto53.2

123Teleop124.8

47Endgame35.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	55	58
teleop	37	81
endgame	52	15
foul	0	0
total	144	154

Result

Final score

144 – 154

Prediction correct · off by 65.6 pts

Match videos

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