FIM District Midland Event presented by Dow

Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

174.6 – 154.37

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

206 – 86

Prediction correct · off by 49.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 295.4 ±11

3357COMETS

Season APEX 110.7Event APEX 55.66Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9661Huskie STEAM

Season APEX 66.7Event APEX 31.26Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5533Electric Horse Power

Season APEX 118Event APEX 87.68Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 506.8 ±10.7

201The FEDS

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 79.94Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6073Cav-Bots

Season APEX 43Event APEX 20.28Rank 28Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2619The Charge

Season APEX 215.3Event APEX 54.15Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3357, 9661, 5533

/ 100 compat

Projected

174.6 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 3357, 9661, 5533

Auto

39.2 23%

Teleop

97.2 56%

Endgame

35.8 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 201, 6073, 2619

/ 100 compat

Projected

154.4 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 201, 6073, 2619

Auto

24.4 17%

Teleop

84.1 57%

Endgame

37.8 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.62 · Blue 1.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score174.6pts

Blue projected score154.4pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 20.2
Score range: 133–196
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 292 vs event baseline 117.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

295.4Season APEX506.8

39.2Auto24.4

97.2Teleop84.1

35.8Endgame37.8

55Consistency54

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	56
teleop	117	30
endgame	54	0
foul	0	0
total	206	86

Result

Final score

206 – 86

Prediction correct · off by 49.9 pts

Match videos

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