FIM District Midland Event presented by Dow

Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

55.81 – 41.14

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

233 – 54

Prediction correct · off by 95 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 584 ±8.7

3770BlitzCreek

Season APEX 186.2Event APEX 18.1Rank 9Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5216E-Ville Empire

Season APEX 234.2Event APEX 14Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5166Fabricators

Season APEX 163.6Event APEX 23.71Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 137.2 ±13.9

10629Bath High School Bee-Botics

Season APEX 34.7Event APEX 10.29Rank 38Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3425PULSARS

Season APEX 52.3Event APEX 13.14Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5525Alcona Tool Cats

Season APEX 50.2Event APEX 17.71Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3770, 5216, 5166

/ 100 compat

Projected

55.8 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 3770, 5216, 5166

Auto

23.6 42%

Teleop

26.5 47%

Endgame

5.7 10%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 10629, 3425, 5525

/ 100 compat

Projected

41.1 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 10629, 3425, 5525

Auto

8.9 22%

Teleop

24.9 60%

Endgame

7.4 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.62 · Blue 1.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score55.8pts

Blue projected score41.1pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 14.7
Score range: 28–69
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 287 vs event baseline 73.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

584Season APEX137.2

23.6Auto8.9

26.5Teleop24.9

5.7Endgame7.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	7
teleop	131	31
endgame	54	16
foul	0	0
total	233	54

Result

Final score

233 – 54

Prediction correct · off by 95 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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