FIM District Midland Event presented by Dow

Qualification · Qualification 78

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

108.03 – 196.26

25%75%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

166 – 283

Prediction correct · off by 72.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 269.8 ±12.2

6753CBA RoboKings

Season APEX 120.2Event APEX 58.81Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5525Alcona Tool Cats

Season APEX 50.2Event APEX 20.93Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5561Raider Robotics

Season APEX 99.4Event APEX 28.29Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 549.4 ±9.8

201The FEDS

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 73.4Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5229Heritage Hawkbots

Season APEX 130.3Event APEX 48.88Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8517Bounty Hunters

Season APEX 170.6Event APEX 73.98Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6753, 5525, 5561

/ 100 compat

Projected

108 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 6753, 5525, 5561

Auto

17.4 16%

Teleop

53.3 49%

Endgame

38.2 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 201, 5229, 8517

/ 100 compat

Projected

196.3 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 201, 5229, 8517

Auto

26.4 14%

Teleop

108.5 58%

Endgame

51.6 28%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.95 · Blue 2.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score108pts

Blue projected score196.3pts

Red win probability25%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -88.2
Score range: 88–216
Upset likelihood: 25%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 449 vs event baseline 109.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

269.8Season APEX549.4

17.4Auto26.4

53.3Teleop108.5

38.2Endgame51.6

100Consistency59

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	44
teleop	90	168
endgame	53	71
foul	0	0
total	166	283

Result

Final score

166 – 283

Prediction correct · off by 72.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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