FIM District Midland Event presented by Dow

Qualification · Qualification 75

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

101.81 – 101.27

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

95 – 87

Prediction correct · off by 10.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 293.4 ±12.4

9736Tawas Braves

Season APEX 56.4Event APEX 30.22Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6067The Underdogs

Season APEX 50.8Event APEX 14.97Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3770BlitzCreek

Season APEX 186.2Event APEX 56.62Rank 9Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 344.3 ±11.7

9648Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 53.6Event APEX 12.09Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5712Hemlock's Gray Matter

Season APEX 245.7Event APEX 79.01Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6533BeaverTech noducks

Season APEX 45Event APEX 10.17Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9736, 6067, 3770

/ 100 compat

Projected

101.8 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 9736, 6067, 3770

Auto

23.3 24%

Teleop

44.4 46%

Endgame

29.3 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 9648, 5712, 6533

/ 100 compat

Projected

101.3 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 9648, 5712, 6533

Auto

26.1 26%

Teleop

60.7 61%

Endgame

13.3 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.4 · Blue 1.31

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score101.8pts

Blue projected score101.3pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 0.5
Score range: 81–122
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 182 vs event baseline 110.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

293.4Season APEX344.3

23.3Auto26.1

44.4Teleop60.7

29.3Endgame13.3

50Consistency55

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	24
teleop	22	21
endgame	27	27
foul	0	15
total	95	87

Result

Final score

95 – 87

Prediction correct · off by 10.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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