FIM District Midland Event presented by Dow

Qualification · Qualification 72

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

79.08 – 110.42

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

108 – 138

Prediction correct · off by 28.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 230.5 ±12.2

5231The Radical Jays

Season APEX 33.5Event APEX -1.7Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5229Heritage Hawkbots

Season APEX 130.3Event APEX 47.64Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9661Huskie STEAM

Season APEX 66.7Event APEX 33.14Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 155.6 ±13.3

11458Mechcats

Season APEX 39Event APEX 33.12Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9685Crystal Oscillators

Season APEX 64.3Event APEX 34.83Rank 20Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3425PULSARS

Season APEX 52.3Event APEX 42.47Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5231, 5229, 9661

/ 100 compat

Projected

79.1 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5231, 5229, 9661

Auto

18.3 25%

Teleop

31.7 44%

Endgame

22.0 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 11458, 9685, 3425

/ 100 compat

Projected

110.4 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 11458, 9685, 3425

Auto

25.1 22%

Teleop

46.0 41%

Endgame

40.5 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.22 · Blue 1.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score79.1pts

Blue projected score110.4pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -31.3
Score range: 59–130
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 246 vs event baseline 110.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

230.5Season APEX155.6

18.3Auto25.1

31.7Teleop46

22Endgame40.5

47Consistency107

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	44
teleop	49	52
endgame	44	42
foul	0	0
total	108	138

Result

Final score

108 – 138

Prediction correct · off by 28.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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