FIM District Midland Event presented by Dow

Qualification · Qualification 71

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

139.5 – 57.1

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

208 – 67

Prediction correct · off by 39.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 512 ±10.7

2619The Charge

Season APEX 215.3Event APEX 50.14Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5712Hemlock's Gray Matter

Season APEX 245.7Event APEX 74.05Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10587Windover Wing Nuts

Season APEX 51Event APEX 15.31Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 146.8 ±13.3

5603The WarriorBots

Season APEX 45.8Event APEX 21.72Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5525Alcona Tool Cats

Season APEX 50.2Event APEX 20.41Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6067The Underdogs

Season APEX 50.8Event APEX 14.97Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2619, 5712, 10587

/ 100 compat

Projected

139.5 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 2619, 5712, 10587

Auto

24.1 17%

Teleop

91.6 64%

Endgame

27.2 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5603, 5525, 6067

/ 100 compat

Projected

57.1 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5603, 5525, 6067

Auto

10.1 18%

Teleop

17.6 31%

Endgame

29.4 51%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.98 · Blue 0.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score139.5pts

Blue projected score57.1pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 82.4
Score range: 37–160
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 275 vs event baseline 109.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

512Season APEX146.8

24.1Auto10.1

91.6Teleop17.6

27.2Endgame29.4

68Consistency86

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	16
teleop	112	32
endgame	50	19
foul	0	0
total	208	67

Result

Final score

208 – 67

Prediction correct · off by 39.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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