FIM District Midland Event presented by Dow

Qualification · Qualification 70

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

28.05 – 146.24

19%81%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

28 – 143

Prediction correct · off by 1.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 141.7 ±13.3

11527FCCA Chrome Crew

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 15.11Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9648Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 53.6Event APEX 13.51Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9731All Saints Range Precision

Season APEX 37.6Event APEX -0.57Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 311.8 ±11.7

5561Raider Robotics

Season APEX 99.4Event APEX 29.06Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5166Fabricators

Season APEX 163.6Event APEX 103.42Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5509Like a Boss

Season APEX 48.8Event APEX 13.76Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11527, 9648, 9731

/ 100 compat

Projected

28.1 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 11527, 9648, 9731

Auto

6.6 26%

Teleop

9.4 38%

Endgame

9.0 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5561, 5166, 5509

/ 100 compat

Projected

146.2 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5561, 5166, 5509

Auto

29.3 20%

Teleop

74.8 51%

Endgame

42.1 29%

Strengths

· 5166 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.69 · Blue 2.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score28.1pts

Blue projected score146.2pts

Red win probability19%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 27%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -118.2
Score range: 8–166
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 171 vs event baseline 110.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

141.7Season APEX311.8

6.6Auto29.3

9.4Teleop74.8

9Endgame42.1

49Consistency41

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	14
teleop	10	98
endgame	8	31
foul	0	0
total	28	143

Result

Final score

28 – 143

Prediction correct · off by 1.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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