FIM District Midland Event presented by Dow

Qualification · Qualification 7

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

44.53 – 29.9

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

109 – 86

Prediction correct · off by 60.3 points

Limited current-season data (6 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 520.9 ±9.9

201The FEDS

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX -Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5538Vikingbots

Season APEX 57.1Event APEX 6.57Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2619The Charge

Season APEX 215.3Event APEX 26.29Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 263.5 ±12.4

8873Rockefeller Robotics

Season APEX 171.8Event APEX -Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5509Like a Boss

Season APEX 48.8Event APEX -Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9238Jaybots

Season APEX 42.9Event APEX 6.57Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 201, 5538, 2619

/ 100 compat

Projected

44.5 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 201, 5538, 2619

Auto

14.1 32%

Teleop

22.4 50%

Endgame

8.1 18%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8873, 5509, 9238

/ 100 compat

Projected

29.9 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 8873, 5509, 9238

Auto

9.0 30%

Teleop

14.8 49%

Endgame

6.1 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.66 · Blue 1.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score44.5pts

Blue projected score29.9pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 14.6
Score range: 17–58
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 195 vs event baseline 70.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

520.9Season APEX263.5

10.6Auto2

16.6Teleop3.1

5.7Endgame1.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	22
teleop	60	45
endgame	36	19
foul	0	0
total	109	86

Result

Final score

109 – 86

Prediction correct · off by 60.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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