FIM District Midland Event presented by Dow

Qualification · Qualification 65

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

41.14 – 106.26

31%69%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

45 – 109

Prediction correct · off by 3.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 156.5 ±13.3

10547United Phoenix

Season APEX 51.9Event APEX 14.65Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10587Windover Wing Nuts

Season APEX 51Event APEX 12.84Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9648Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 53.6Event APEX 13.65Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 344.7 ±12.4

5525Alcona Tool Cats

Season APEX 50.2Event APEX 20.71Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5712Hemlock's Gray Matter

Season APEX 245.7Event APEX 73.47Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5509Like a Boss

Season APEX 48.8Event APEX 12.08Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10547, 10587, 9648

/ 100 compat

Projected

41.1 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 10547, 10587, 9648

Auto

10.7 27%

Teleop

15.3 39%

Endgame

13.5 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5525, 5712, 5509

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.3 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5525, 5712, 5509

Auto

27.0 25%

Teleop

54.6 51%

Endgame

25.7 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.97 · Blue 1.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score41.1pts

Blue projected score106.3pts

Red win probability31%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -65.1
Score range: 21–126
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 154 vs event baseline 110.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

156.5Season APEX344.7

10.7Auto27

15.3Teleop54.6

13.5Endgame25.7

45Consistency36

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	20
teleop	16	56
endgame	17	33
foul	0	0
total	45	109

Result

Final score

45 – 109

Prediction correct · off by 3.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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