FIM District Midland Event presented by Dow

Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

88.68 – 131.5

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

105 – 143

Prediction correct · off by 13.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 319.7 ±12.4

6067The Underdogs

Season APEX 50.8Event APEX 14.17Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5216E-Ville Empire

Season APEX 234.2Event APEX 80.25Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10629Bath High School Bee-Botics

Season APEX 34.7Event APEX -5.74Rank 38Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 317.2 ±11.1

9685Crystal Oscillators

Season APEX 64.3Event APEX 40.82Rank 20Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9661Huskie STEAM

Season APEX 66.7Event APEX 34.52Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3770BlitzCreek

Season APEX 186.2Event APEX 56.16Rank 9Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6067, 5216, 10629

/ 100 compat

Projected

88.7 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 6067, 5216, 10629

Auto

20.3 22%

Teleop

61.0 66%

Endgame

11.5 12%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9685, 9661, 3770

/ 100 compat

Projected

131.5 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 9685, 9661, 3770

Auto

44.8 35%

Teleop

60.4 47%

Endgame

22.3 17%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.19 · Blue 1.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score88.7pts

Blue projected score131.5pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 5%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -42.8
Score range: 69–152
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 248 vs event baseline 109.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

319.7Season APEX317.2

20.3Auto44.8

61Teleop60.4

11.5Endgame22.3

82Consistency47

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	29
teleop	60	29
endgame	36	70
foul	0	15
total	105	143

Result

Final score

105 – 143

Prediction correct · off by 13.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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