FIM District Midland Event presented by Dow

Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

49.62 – 164.82

19%81%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

31 – 163

Prediction correct · off by 10.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 128.8 ±13.3

5509Like a Boss

Season APEX 48.8Event APEX 15.07Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5504The Loose Connections

Season APEX 22.9Event APEX 12.64Rank 39Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5538Vikingbots

Season APEX 57.1Event APEX 21.91Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 466.8 ±11.2

5712Hemlock's Gray Matter

Season APEX 245.7Event APEX 73.94Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11527FCCA Chrome Crew

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 15.93Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8517Bounty Hunters

Season APEX 170.6Event APEX 74.95Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5509, 5504, 5538

/ 100 compat

Projected

49.6 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5509, 5504, 5538

Auto

20.3 44%

Teleop

18.7 41%

Endgame

6.9 15%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5712, 11527, 8517

/ 100 compat

Projected

164.8 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5712, 11527, 8517

Auto

27.0 17%

Teleop

92.4 57%

Endgame

42.4 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.77 · Blue 2.09

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score49.6pts

Blue projected score164.8pts

Red win probability19%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -115.2
Score range: 30–185
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 194 vs event baseline 108.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

128.8Season APEX466.8

20.3Auto27

18.7Teleop92.4

6.9Endgame42.4

46Consistency28

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	33
teleop	5	95
endgame	6	30
foul	5	5
total	31	163

Result

Final score

31 – 163

Prediction correct · off by 10.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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