FIM District Midland Event presented by Dow

Qualification · Qualification 57

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

111.45 – 77

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

99 – 97

Prediction correct · off by 16.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 278.8 ±11.7

11458Mechcats

Season APEX 39Event APEX 36.77Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3770BlitzCreek

Season APEX 186.2Event APEX 58.99Rank 9Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9648Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 53.6Event APEX 15.69Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 316.7 ±11.7

9661Huskie STEAM

Season APEX 66.7Event APEX 35.03Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2619The Charge

Season APEX 215.3Event APEX 47.94Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10629Bath High School Bee-Botics

Season APEX 34.7Event APEX -5.97Rank 38Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11458, 3770, 9648

/ 100 compat

Projected

111.5 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 11458, 3770, 9648

Auto

29.6 27%

Teleop

46.4 42%

Endgame

33.5 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 9661, 2619, 10629

/ 100 compat

Projected

77 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 9661, 2619, 10629

Auto

13.6 17%

Teleop

61.0 75%

Endgame

6.4 8%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.56 · Blue 1.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score111.5pts

Blue projected score77pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 34.5
Score range: 58–130
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 196 vs event baseline 108.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

278.8Season APEX316.7

29.6Auto13.6

46.4Teleop61

33.5Endgame6.4

50Consistency78

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	16
teleop	68	53
endgame	8	28
foul	0	0
total	99	97

Result

Final score

99 – 97

Prediction correct · off by 16.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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