FIM District Midland Event presented by Dow

Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

146.77 – 73.15

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

194 – 108

Prediction correct · off by 41 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 389 ±11.2

9662Valley Lutheran Chargers

Season APEX 44.1Event APEX 9.82Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3357COMETS

Season APEX 110.7Event APEX 60.64Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5216E-Ville Empire

Season APEX 234.2Event APEX 76.31Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 337.1 ±12.4

10587Windover Wing Nuts

Season APEX 51Event APEX 12.79Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9731All Saints Range Precision

Season APEX 37.6Event APEX -10.84Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

201The FEDS

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 71.2Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9662, 3357, 5216

/ 100 compat

Projected

146.8 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 9662, 3357, 5216

Auto

27.9 19%

Teleop

84.8 59%

Endgame

32.1 22%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10587, 9731, 201

/ 100 compat

Projected

73.2 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 10587, 9731, 201

Auto

21.6 32%

Teleop

33.3 50%

Endgame

11.7 18%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.92 · Blue 1.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score146.8pts

Blue projected score73.2pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 73.6
Score range: 54–166
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 302 vs event baseline 107.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

389Season APEX337.1

27.9Auto21.6

84.8Teleop33.3

32.1Endgame11.7

36Consistency107

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	62	12
teleop	117	60
endgame	15	36
foul	0	0
total	194	108

Result

Final score

194 – 108

Prediction correct · off by 41 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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