FIM District Midland Event presented by Dow

Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

118 – 130.18

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

105 – 125

Prediction correct · off by 9.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 234.5 ±12.8

5229Heritage Hawkbots

Season APEX 130.3Event APEX 54.77Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3425PULSARS

Season APEX 52.3Event APEX 42.3Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10547United Phoenix

Season APEX 51.9Event APEX 20.93Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 279.7 ±11.7

6067The Underdogs

Season APEX 50.8Event APEX 20.01Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8873Rockefeller Robotics

Season APEX 171.8Event APEX 84.54Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5538Vikingbots

Season APEX 57.1Event APEX 25.63Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5229, 3425, 10547

/ 100 compat

Projected

118 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5229, 3425, 10547

Auto

15.2 14%

Teleop

57.7 52%

Endgame

38.0 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6067, 8873, 5538

/ 100 compat

Projected

130.2 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 6067, 8873, 5538

Auto

27.8 23%

Teleop

72.0 59%

Endgame

22.9 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.41 · Blue 1.57

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score118pts

Blue projected score130.2pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -12.2
Score range: 99–149
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 230 vs event baseline 106.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

234.5Season APEX279.7

15.2Auto27.8

57.7Teleop72

38Endgame22.9

58Consistency53

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	12
teleop	49	76
endgame	30	37
foul	0	0
total	105	125

Result

Final score

105 – 125

Prediction correct · off by 9.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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