FIM District Midland Event presented by Dow

Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

34.78 – 152.32

19%81%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

66 – 199

Prediction correct · off by 39 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 164.9 ±12.7

10629Bath High School Bee-Botics

Season APEX 34.7Event APEX -6.77Rank 38Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9648Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 53.6Event APEX 15.19Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1596The Instigators

Season APEX 76.6Event APEX 26.36Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 531.5 ±10.7

5216E-Ville Empire

Season APEX 234.2Event APEX 72.07Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5509Like a Boss

Season APEX 48.8Event APEX 13.97Rank 15Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

201The FEDS

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 66.28Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10629, 9648, 1596

/ 100 compat

Projected

34.8 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 10629, 9648, 1596

Auto

15.2 42%

Teleop

23.2 64%

Endgame

-1.9 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5216, 5509, 201

/ 100 compat

Projected

152.3 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5216, 5509, 201

Auto

35.9 24%

Teleop

83.0 54%

Endgame

33.6 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.71 · Blue 2.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score34.8pts

Blue projected score152.3pts

Red win probability19%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 50%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -117.5
Score range: 16–171
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 265 vs event baseline 106.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

164.9Season APEX531.5

15.2Auto35.9

23.2Teleop83

-1.9Endgame33.6

74Consistency110

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	48
teleop	28	118
endgame	13	33
foul	0	0
total	66	199

Result

Final score

66 – 199

Prediction correct · off by 39 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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