FIM District Midland Event presented by Dow

Qualification · Qualification 50

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

85.27 – 139.7

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

64 – 160

Prediction correct · off by 20.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 225.4 ±12.8

10587Windover Wing Nuts

Season APEX 51Event APEX 12.46Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5229Heritage Hawkbots

Season APEX 130.3Event APEX 57.56Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9662Valley Lutheran Chargers

Season APEX 44.1Event APEX 15.25Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 354 ±10.5

3770BlitzCreek

Season APEX 186.2Event APEX 59.8Rank 9Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3357COMETS

Season APEX 110.7Event APEX 56.82Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5538Vikingbots

Season APEX 57.1Event APEX 23.08Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10587, 5229, 9662

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.3 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 10587, 5229, 9662

Auto

7.8 10%

Teleop

44.7 56%

Endgame

27.8 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3770, 3357, 5538

/ 100 compat

Projected

139.7 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 3770, 3357, 5538

Auto

26.3 21%

Teleop

65.7 53%

Endgame

32.2 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.15 · Blue 1.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score85.3pts

Blue projected score139.7pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -54.4
Score range: 66–159
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 224 vs event baseline 105.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

225.4Season APEX354

7.8Auto26.3

44.7Teleop65.7

27.8Endgame32.2

65Consistency27

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	54
teleop	22	81
endgame	32	25
foul	0	0
total	64	160

Result

Final score

64 – 160

Prediction correct · off by 20.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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