FIM District Midland Event presented by Dow

Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

15.27 – 69.17

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

45 – 93

Prediction correct · off by 26.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 124.2 ±13.3

5424Rogue Robots

Season APEX 39Event APEX 16.14Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11527FCCA Chrome Crew

Season APEX 50.5Event APEX 6.79Rank 32Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10629Bath High School Bee-Botics

Season APEX 34.7Event APEX -7.66Rank 38Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 151.7 ±12.7

3425PULSARS

Season APEX 52.3Event APEX 35.07Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9648Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 53.6Event APEX 13.67Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5603The WarriorBots

Season APEX 45.8Event APEX 20.43Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5424, 11527, 10629

/ 100 compat

Projected

15.3 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5424, 11527, 10629

Auto

13.5 77%

Teleop

0.1 1%

Endgame

4.0 23%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3425, 9648, 5603

/ 100 compat

Projected

69.2 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 3425, 9648, 5603

Auto

13.5 21%

Teleop

35.2 54%

Endgame

16.5 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.02 · Blue 1.62

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score15.3pts

Blue projected score69.2pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -53.9
Score range: -4–88
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 138 vs event baseline 105.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

124.2Season APEX151.7

13.5Auto13.5

0.1Teleop35.2

4Endgame16.5

38Consistency59

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	25
teleop	19	51
endgame	11	17
foul	0	0
total	45	93

Result

Final score

45 – 93

Prediction correct · off by 26.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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