FIM District Midland Event presented by Dow

Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

62.97 – 169.53

21%79%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

83 – 238

Prediction correct · off by 44.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 166 ±13.3

9736Tawas Braves

Season APEX 56.4Event APEX 7.25Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9662Valley Lutheran Chargers

Season APEX 44.1Event APEX 13.57Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6033Gadget Agents

Season APEX 65.5Event APEX 42.15Rank 13Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 476 ±9.9

5166Fabricators

Season APEX 163.6Event APEX 76.94Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9661Huskie STEAM

Season APEX 66.7Event APEX 31.89Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5712Hemlock's Gray Matter

Season APEX 245.7Event APEX 60.7Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9736, 9662, 6033

/ 100 compat

Projected

63 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9736, 9662, 6033

Auto

22.2 37%

Teleop

21.5 36%

Endgame

15.9 27%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5166, 9661, 5712

/ 100 compat

Projected

169.5 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5166, 9661, 5712

Auto

32.0 19%

Teleop

106.1 63%

Endgame

30.8 18%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.82 · Blue 2.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score63pts

Blue projected score169.5pts

Red win probability21%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -106.6
Score range: 44–189
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 321 vs event baseline 102.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

166Season APEX476

22.2Auto32

21.5Teleop106.1

15.9Endgame30.8

84Consistency37

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	37
teleop	38	146
endgame	31	55
foul	0	0
total	83	238

Result

Final score

83 – 238

Prediction correct · off by 44.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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