FIM District Midland Event presented by Dow

Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

73.03 – 96.39

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

69 – 81

Prediction correct · off by 9.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 161.5 ±13.3

7784Vassar Voltage

Season APEX 47Event APEX 23.15Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9685Crystal Oscillators

Season APEX 64.3Event APEX 30.19Rank 20Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5525Alcona Tool Cats

Season APEX 50.2Event APEX 19.69Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 342.2 ±12.4

9238Jaybots

Season APEX 42.9Event APEX -0.46Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

201The FEDS

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 67.78Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6067The Underdogs

Season APEX 50.8Event APEX 29.07Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7784, 9685, 5525

/ 100 compat

Projected

73 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 7784, 9685, 5525

Auto

16.0 23%

Teleop

28.2 41%

Endgame

24.4 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 9238, 201, 6067

/ 100 compat

Projected

96.4 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 9238, 201, 6067

Auto

12.0 13%

Teleop

46.2 50%

Endgame

34.8 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.18 · Blue 1.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score73pts

Blue projected score96.4pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -23.4
Score range: 54–115
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 150 vs event baseline 103.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

161.5Season APEX342.2

16Auto12

28.2Teleop46.2

24.4Endgame34.8

92Consistency111

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	8
teleop	12	49
endgame	21	24
foul	0	0
total	69	81

Result

Final score

69 – 81

Prediction correct · off by 9.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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