FIM District Midland Event presented by Dow

Qualification · Qualification 4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

78.06 – 78.71

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

46 – 62

Prediction correct · off by 24.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 143.4 ±13.9

7784Vassar Voltage

Season APEX 47Event APEX 20.25Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9662Valley Lutheran Chargers

Season APEX 44.1Event APEX 12.19Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3425PULSARS

Season APEX 52.3Event APEX 45.62Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 140.2 ±13.9

11458Mechcats

Season APEX 39Event APEX 34.07Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5525Alcona Tool Cats

Season APEX 50.2Event APEX 25.05Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10587Windover Wing Nuts

Season APEX 51Event APEX 19.59Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7784, 9662, 3425

/ 100 compat

Projected

78.1 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 7784, 9662, 3425

Auto

16.5 21%

Teleop

36.6 47%

Endgame

24.6 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11458, 5525, 10587

/ 100 compat

Projected

78.7 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 11458, 5525, 10587

Auto

13.7 17%

Teleop

41.0 50%

Endgame

27.5 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.41 · Blue 1.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score78.1pts

Blue projected score78.7pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -0.6
Score range: 56–101
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 108 vs event baseline 121.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

143.4Season APEX140.2

16.5Auto13.7

36.6Teleop41

24.6Endgame27.5

79Consistency85

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	13
teleop	31	35
endgame	6	14
foul	0	0
total	46	62

Result

Final score

46 – 62

Prediction correct · off by 24.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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