FIM District Midland Event presented by Dow

Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

70.61 – 55.54

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

84 – 111

Prediction missed · off by 34.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 185.3 ±13.3

1596The Instigators

Season APEX 76.6Event APEX 29.03Rank 19Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3425PULSARS

Season APEX 52.3Event APEX 36.62Rank 24Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9736Tawas Braves

Season APEX 56.4Event APEX 4.96Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 298.4 ±11.7

2619The Charge

Season APEX 215.3Event APEX 41.18Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9662Valley Lutheran Chargers

Season APEX 44.1Event APEX 5.65Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5424Rogue Robots

Season APEX 39Event APEX 8.71Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1596, 3425, 9736

/ 100 compat

Projected

70.6 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 1596, 3425, 9736

Auto

18.0 25%

Teleop

35.8 49%

Endgame

19.6 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2619, 9662, 5424

/ 100 compat

Projected

55.5 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 2619, 9662, 5424

Auto

16.3 30%

Teleop

17.0 31%

Endgame

21.6 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.53 · Blue 1.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score70.6pts

Blue projected score55.5pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 15.1
Score range: 37–90
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 195 vs event baseline 103.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

185.3Season APEX298.4

18Auto16.3

35.8Teleop17

19.6Endgame21.6

82Consistency76

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	30
teleop	32	49
endgame	9	32
foul	0	0
total	84	111

Result

Final score

84 – 111

Prediction missed · off by 34.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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