FIM District Midland Event presented by Dow

Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

97.19 – 129.75

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

140 – 130

Prediction missed · off by 21.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 343.5 ±12.4

5712Hemlock's Gray Matter

Season APEX 245.7Event APEX 54.69Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7784Vassar Voltage

Season APEX 47Event APEX 17.99Rank 26Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6067The Underdogs

Season APEX 50.8Event APEX 24.51Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 328.6 ±11.2

5166Fabricators

Season APEX 163.6Event APEX 78.19Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5229Heritage Hawkbots

Season APEX 130.3Event APEX 59.31Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10629Bath High School Bee-Botics

Season APEX 34.7Event APEX -7.75Rank 38Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5712, 7784, 6067

/ 100 compat

Projected

97.2 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5712, 7784, 6067

Auto

24.5 25%

Teleop

62.4 64%

Endgame

10.7 11%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5166, 5229, 10629

/ 100 compat

Projected

129.8 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 5166, 5229, 10629

Auto

14.6 12%

Teleop

70.6 57%

Endgame

38.9 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.22 · Blue 1.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score97.2pts

Blue projected score129.8pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -32.6
Score range: 78–149
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 270 vs event baseline 103.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

343.5Season APEX328.6

24.5Auto14.6

62.4Teleop70.6

10.7Endgame38.9

35Consistency87

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	14
teleop	80	86
endgame	49	30
foul	0	0
total	140	130

Result

Final score

140 – 130

Prediction missed · off by 21.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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