FIM District Midland Event presented by Dow

Qualification · Qualification 35

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

113.66 – 81.38

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

130 – 137

Prediction missed · off by 36 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 346.2 ±11.7

5603The WarriorBots

Season APEX 45.8Event APEX 21.18Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10547United Phoenix

Season APEX 51.9Event APEX 24.71Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

201The FEDS

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 67.77Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 296.7 ±11.7

3770BlitzCreek

Season APEX 186.2Event APEX 54.5Rank 9Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6533BeaverTech noducks

Season APEX 45Event APEX -8.66Rank 34Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6033Gadget Agents

Season APEX 65.5Event APEX 35.54Rank 13Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5603, 10547, 201

/ 100 compat

Projected

113.7 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5603, 10547, 201

Auto

19.5 18%

Teleop

53.3 50%

Endgame

33.8 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3770, 6533, 6033

/ 100 compat

Projected

81.4 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 3770, 6533, 6033

Auto

37.3 49%

Teleop

35.5 47%

Endgame

2.8 4%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.64 · Blue 1.18

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score113.7pts

Blue projected score81.4pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 32.3
Score range: 63–132
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 267 vs event baseline 102.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

346.2Season APEX296.7

19.5Auto37.3

53.3Teleop35.5

33.8Endgame2.8

91Consistency84

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	42
teleop	69	60
endgame	42	35
foul	0	0
total	130	137

Result

Final score

130 – 137

Prediction missed · off by 36 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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