FIM District Midland Event presented by Dow

Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

32.87 – 158.74

17%83%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

26 – 238

Prediction correct · off by 43.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 137.3 ±13.3

9648Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 53.6Event APEX 17.07Rank 33Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5525Alcona Tool Cats

Season APEX 50.2Event APEX 21.99Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5231The Radical Jays

Season APEX 33.5Event APEX -6.19Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 312.7 ±11.2

8873Rockefeller Robotics

Season APEX 171.8Event APEX 81.81Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5504The Loose Connections

Season APEX 22.9Event APEX 1.09Rank 39Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5533Electric Horse Power

Season APEX 118Event APEX 75.84Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9648, 5525, 5231

/ 100 compat

Projected

32.9 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 9648, 5525, 5231

Auto

14.2 56%

Teleop

-1.7 0%

Endgame

12.8 51%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8873, 5504, 5533

/ 100 compat

Projected

158.7 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 8873, 5504, 5533

Auto

37.0 24%

Teleop

72.7 48%

Endgame

42.6 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 25%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.64 · Blue 2.11

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score32.9pts

Blue projected score158.7pts

Red win probability17%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 25%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -125.9
Score range: 15–177
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 264 vs event baseline 101.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

137.3Season APEX312.7

14.2Auto37

-1.7Teleop72.7

12.8Endgame42.6

45Consistency56

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	46
teleop	5	150
endgame	6	42
foul	0	0
total	26	238

Result

Final score

26 – 238

Prediction correct · off by 43.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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