FIM District Midland Event presented by Dow

Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

74.92 – 192.2

19%81%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

162 – 116

Prediction missed · off by 81.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 259.6 ±12.4

9662Valley Lutheran Chargers

Season APEX 44.1Event APEX -8.94Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5166Fabricators

Season APEX 163.6Event APEX 65.07Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10547United Phoenix

Season APEX 51.9Event APEX 18.79Rank 22Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 385.7 ±11.2

5533Electric Horse Power

Season APEX 118Event APEX 97.25Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5231The Radical Jays

Season APEX 33.5Event APEX 10.21Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5216E-Ville Empire

Season APEX 234.2Event APEX 84.74Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9662, 5166, 10547

/ 100 compat

Projected

74.9 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9662, 5166, 10547

Auto

20.2 25%

Teleop

38.3 47%

Endgame

23.3 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5533, 5231, 5216

/ 100 compat

Projected

192.2 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5533, 5231, 5216

Auto

36.2 20%

Teleop

107.4 58%

Endgame

40.5 22%

Strengths

· 5533 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.85 · Blue 2.12

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score74.9pts

Blue projected score192.2pts

Red win probability19%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -117.3
Score range: 57–210
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 278 vs event baseline 97.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

259.6Season APEX385.7

20.2Auto36.2

38.3Teleop107.4

23.3Endgame40.5

76Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	41
teleop	61	43
endgame	69	32
foul	15	0
total	162	116

Result

Final score

162 – 116

Prediction missed · off by 81.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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