FIM District Midland Event presented by Dow

Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

112.77 – 109.41

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

49 – 92

Prediction missed · off by 40.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 328.2 ±12.4

5216E-Ville Empire

Season APEX 234.2Event APEX 86.71Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9731All Saints Range Precision

Season APEX 37.6Event APEX -2.04Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9736Tawas Braves

Season APEX 56.4Event APEX 28.1Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 435 ±10.7

5231The Radical Jays

Season APEX 33.5Event APEX -1.53Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2619The Charge

Season APEX 215.3Event APEX 50.78Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3770BlitzCreek

Season APEX 186.2Event APEX 60.16Rank 9Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5216, 9731, 9736

/ 100 compat

Projected

112.8 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5216, 9731, 9736

Auto

30.0 27%

Teleop

62.6 56%

Endgame

18.5 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5231, 2619, 3770

/ 100 compat

Projected

109.4 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5231, 2619, 3770

Auto

35.7 34%

Teleop

41.4 39%

Endgame

27.9 27%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.47 · Blue 1.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score112.8pts

Blue projected score109.4pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 3.4
Score range: 87–135
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 141 vs event baseline 121.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

328.2Season APEX435

30Auto35.7

62.6Teleop41.4

18.5Endgame27.9

36Consistency94

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	30
teleop	26	47
endgame	0	15
foul	0	0
total	49	92

Result

Final score

49 – 92

Prediction missed · off by 40.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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