FIM District Midland Event presented by Dow

Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

98.31 – 97.01

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

121 – 146

Prediction missed · off by 35.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 244.5 ±12.8

8517Bounty Hunters

Season APEX 170.6Event APEX 73.35Rank 7Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10587Windover Wing Nuts

Season APEX 51Event APEX 18.93Rank 21Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5504The Loose Connections

Season APEX 22.9Event APEX 6.03Rank 39Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 267.2 ±12.4

8873Rockefeller Robotics

Season APEX 171.8Event APEX 64.31Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9736Tawas Braves

Season APEX 56.4Event APEX 3.54Rank 25Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11458Mechcats

Season APEX 39Event APEX 29.16Rank 11Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8517, 10587, 5504

/ 100 compat

Projected

98.3 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 8517, 10587, 5504

Auto

14.6 15%

Teleop

54.3 56%

Endgame

28.1 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8873, 9736, 11458

/ 100 compat

Projected

97 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 8873, 9736, 11458

Auto

29.6 32%

Teleop

45.7 49%

Endgame

17.6 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.44 · Blue 1.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score98.3pts

Blue projected score97pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 1.3
Score range: 80–115
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 267 vs event baseline 96.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

244.5Season APEX267.2

14.6Auto29.6

54.3Teleop45.7

28.1Endgame17.6

127Consistency119

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	28
teleop	67	65
endgame	19	53
foul	5	0
total	121	146

Result

Final score

121 – 146

Prediction missed · off by 35.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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