FIM District Midland Event presented by Dow

Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

104.05 – 122.88

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

60 – 141

Prediction correct · off by 31.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 196.8 ±12.8

10629Bath High School Bee-Botics

Season APEX 34.7Event APEX -0.32Rank 38Record 1-11-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5533Electric Horse Power

Season APEX 118Event APEX 107.44Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9662Valley Lutheran Chargers

Season APEX 44.1Event APEX -3.07Rank 31Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 414.6 ±11.1

201The FEDS

Season APEX 248.5Event APEX 65.58Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5561Raider Robotics

Season APEX 99.4Event APEX 33.16Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9661Huskie STEAM

Season APEX 66.7Event APEX 24.14Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10629, 5533, 9662

/ 100 compat

Projected

104.1 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 10629, 5533, 9662

Auto

9.0 9%

Teleop

72.8 72%

Endgame

19.1 19%

Strengths

· 5533 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 201, 5561, 9661

/ 100 compat

Projected

122.9 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 201, 5561, 9661

Auto

28.1 25%

Teleop

65.2 57%

Endgame

20.5 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.34 · Blue 1.6

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score104.1pts

Blue projected score122.9pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -18.8
Score range: 87–140
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 201 vs event baseline 96.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

196.8Season APEX414.6

9Auto28.1

72.8Teleop65.2

19.1Endgame20.5

132Consistency98

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	30
teleop	19	83
endgame	20	28
foul	0	0
total	60	141

Result

Final score

60 – 141

Prediction correct · off by 31.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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