FIM District Midland Event presented by Dow

Qualification · Qualification 25

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

104.54 – 0

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

54 – 116

Prediction missed · off by 83.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 318.2 ±11.7

5424Rogue Robots

Season APEX 39Event APEX 20.52Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5231The Radical Jays

Season APEX 33.5Event APEX 23.05Rank 37Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5712Hemlock's Gray Matter

Season APEX 245.7Event APEX 60.97Rank 10Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 208.6 ±12.8

9731All Saints Range Precision

Season APEX 37.6Event APEX -33.8Rank 36Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6067The Underdogs

Season APEX 50.8Event APEX 1.04Rank 23Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6753CBA RoboKings

Season APEX 120.2Event APEX 32.42Rank 12Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5424, 5231, 5712

/ 100 compat

Projected

104.5 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5424, 5231, 5712

Auto

34.2 37%

Teleop

38.8 42%

Endgame

20.3 22%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9731, 6067, 6753

/ 100 compat

Projected

-0.3 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 9731, 6067, 6753

Auto

18.8 100%

Teleop

-10.7 0%

Endgame

-2.3 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.92 · Blue 0.86

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score104.5pts

Blue projected score-0.3pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 104.5
Score range: -17–122
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 170 vs event baseline 96.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

318.2Season APEX208.6

34.2Auto18.8

38.8Teleop-10.7

20.3Endgame-2.3

0Consistency205

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	14
teleop	18	64
endgame	6	38
foul	0	0
total	54	116

Result

Final score

54 – 116

Prediction missed · off by 83.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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