FIM District Midland Event presented by Dow

Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

111.39 – 59.78

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

133 – 136

Prediction missed · off by 48.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 274.9 ±11.1

5603The WarriorBots

Season APEX 45.8Event APEX 5.48Rank 35Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6033Gadget Agents

Season APEX 65.5Event APEX 34.78Rank 13Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5166Fabricators

Season APEX 163.6Event APEX 71.13Rank 1Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 376.2 ±11.2

5525Alcona Tool Cats

Season APEX 50.2Event APEX 9.59Rank 30Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3357COMETS

Season APEX 110.7Event APEX 31.93Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2619The Charge

Season APEX 215.3Event APEX 18.26Rank 5Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5603, 6033, 5166

/ 100 compat

Projected

111.4 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 5603, 6033, 5166

Auto

39.2 37%

Teleop

50.3 48%

Endgame

15.4 15%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5525, 3357, 2619

/ 100 compat

Projected

59.8 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5525, 3357, 2619

Auto

-2.7 0%

Teleop

41.1 67%

Endgame

22.8 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.73 · Blue 1.17

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score111.4pts

Blue projected score59.8pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample186alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 51.6
Score range: 43–128
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 269 vs event baseline 95.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

274.9Season APEX376.2

39.2Auto-2.7

50.3Teleop41.1

15.4Endgame22.8

126Consistency181

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	15
teleop	68	67
endgame	31	54
foul	5	0
total	133	136

Result

Final score

133 – 136

Prediction missed · off by 48.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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